Global Warming and Cooling, Climate Change Versus Weather

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21/05/2008

Much ado has been made regarding a study in Nature which found that global warming may slow or even temporarily cool over the coming decade. This was seized upon by all sorts of climate skeptics and charlatans to suggest climate change is not so important after all. I have three brief responses.
Firstly, the rise in average global temperature is only one way to characterize change in atmospheric patterns and processes. It is becoming apparent that broader extremes around temperature averages -- as demonstrated by unusual weather events, including quite possibly the cyclone in Myanmar may be the greater harm. This is why "climate change" has long been recognized as a better term than "global warming" to communicate these dynamics.
Secondly, as RealClimate points out in their post "Global Cooling - Wanna Bet?" -- this study and other recent coverage of a lack of warming in recent years are flawed because they compare long term climate change to short term weather variability. There have been lulls, peaks and troughs in the plainly evident past human-caused global warming and there will be as we go forward. As various oscillations break down and the climate becomes more chaotic, it is probable various feedbacks will temporarily lead to cooling.
And lastly, let us keep in mind that climate change is but one symptom of a larger systematic break down in the biosphere. Water scarcity, soil depletion, lifeless oceans, biodiversity extinction, bioaccumulating toxics and many other ecological crises illustrate humanity's numbers and consumption patterns overwhelming global ecosystems which make life possible. The science is clear and settled, climate is inexorably warming and becoming more unpredictable, exacerbating these other ecological crises and threatening to dramatically change what it means to live on the planet Earth.


2 comentaris
imatge de cheeziecon
cheeziecon el Dg, 05/04/2009 - 18:34 says
0 vots

Graham, glad you brought this up. There was a BBCNews documentary a couple of years ago (im sure youve seen it) that discussed the issue of 'global warming'. this report was unique in that it stressed that photochemical smog was reducing the impacts of global warming by blocking insolation, leading to a cooling effect. I havent read the Nature article that you mention, but i wonder if they are talking about the same thing as the BBC report? Im worried because my some of my students are easily misled into thinking that GW is only media hype. May i have permission to cut and paste your article for use in my classroom?

imatge de Fadi
Fadi el Dj, 11/09/2008 - 14:53 says
-2 vots

Graham, I wish you could say it in french, and in all the other languages spoken in this platform...

If you allow me, I would like to translate this text of you (not everything exactly, but many parts that may help us to enlight some debates about the climate change in french or in spanish)...

I hope you're still coming to the platform... anyway, I'll take some of your sentences to put them in the other debates!

See you soon by here?